October 3, 2023

No.174

September 2023
(Back Issues Here)

We had 11.16 inches of rain at the Palmira Arriba Station in September of 2023. It rained various amounts on 21 of the days of the month. 

Rainfall for September 2023
Area	Contributors	September 2023	Total 2023
El Salto Arriba	Beth Corwin	5.30	70.43
Alto Quiel	Robert Wareham	3.03	N/A
El Santuario	Robert Boyd	4.57	59.33
Palo Alto	Rodrigo Marciacq	5.53	N/A
Los Cabazon	Don Hughes	6.28	60.82
Jaramillo Arriba	Steve Sarner	13.26	86.25
Jaramillo Arriba	Mark Heyer	9.10	N/A
Palmira Abajo	Dave Nichols	10.70	N/A
Jaramillo Abajo	Don Berkowitz	14.69	N/A
Jaramillo Abajo	John McGann	11.08	78.86
Palo Alto	Nancy Pettersen	5.98	71.58
Valle Escondido	Gisela Remsen	5.64	51.47
Brisas  Boquetenas	Dennis Decorte	19.34	N/A
El Encanto (Volcancito)	Brian Baldwin	5.98	59.59
Cerro Verde (Volcancito)	Charlotte Lintz	3.33	50.36
Santa Lucia	Paula Litt	9.47	60.29
Caldera	Chris McCall	7.81	84.14
Lucero	Mike Joy	13.86	116.09
Boquete Country Club	Paul Arrandale	N/A	N/A
Palmira Abajo	Andrea Boraine	20.90	82.50
Palmira Arriba	Lloyd Cripe	11.16	68.80
N/A = Not Available

Throughout the District of Boquete the rain for September 2023 varied between a high of 20.90 inches (Palmira Abajo) to a low of 3.03 inches (Alto Quiel). Check the table above to see which areas of Boquete had the most and the least rain for the month. Rodrigo Marciacq reported 5.53 at Palo Alto and stated, "...the lowest I have seen for September in 50 years."

Digging back into the past data from the Palmira Arriba Station, the average rainfall for the month of September observed over 17 years of data collection is 17.16 inches of rain with a standard deviation of 9.68 inches. During that span of time there was never been a month of September without some rain. The range has varied between 4.14 to 39.88 inches. This month of September was -0.62 standard deviations below the mean of 17.16.  This is less than 1 standard deviation below the mean.  So the rain for September was below average in the low normal range.

Palmira Arriba Station September Rainfall over 17 Years

Take a look at this table to compare the amount of rain per month over the course of 17 years at the Palmira Arriba Station.  You can check each month for yourself and see how the current month's data compares to other years. You can also look at the tables in the Climate Section to see what rains we had in various months over the course of the last 16 years as well as other weather variables.  

The cumulative rain for 2023 at the end of September was 68.80 inches. If you look through the cumulative rain at the end of September in the Climate section tables for Boquete, you will see a lot of variation over the 16 years. The average cumulative rainfall at the end of September has been 98.62 inches with a low of 48.55 inches (2015) and a high of 179.60 inches (2010).  This September 2023, we are .81 standard deviations below the mean which is below normal.  Here are the numbers: 

Palmira Arriba Station Annual Cumulative Rainfall at end of September over 16 Years

The average monthly temperature was 70.07 degrees Fahrenheit with a maximum of 85.5 degrees and a minimum of 61.0 degrees.

The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "El Niño conditions are observed. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño. El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through January-March 2024)."

Checkout what the NASA Earth Observatory says about the return of El Niño conditions at this link.

Here is a link to a source for a better understanding of El Niño.  If you need some help with this, give this a read and you will learn a lot about this important weather phenomenon. It has more effect upon the Northern Latitudes than it has upon us. From this article it appears that the effects on our area will be "warm and dry." 

The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is predicting that Panama (especially eastern Panama) will have a 40% probability of below normal precipitation during the months of October-November-December of 2023 (Yellow).

ETESA's hydrology and meteorology section reports that the predicted rainfall in September was not in keeping with what actually occurred. September rainfall was less than predicted.  They are now predicting that Panama in general will probably have near normal levels of rain in October. You can read their report and check out the details in the "documents" section at this link.

The Panamá Canal is limiting transits because of drought. This has the potential of serious consequences not only for Panama's revenues but also for world trade and economies. Here are some more thoughts on this problem.   

October is often one of the rainiest months of the year.  Whether or not this is what happens this month is to be seen. Keep the umbrellas handy just in case we get some more normal rains.       

 

Lloyd Cripe

lcripe@boqueteweather.com