| January 5, 2014 | No. 66 |
November & December 2013
Happy New Year to all as 2014 ushers in the dry season. Here are the totals for November, December and Annual rainfall for different areas of the District of Boquete.
Rainfall for November, December & Year 2013 |
||||
Area |
Contributor |
Nov |
Dec |
Year |
El Santuario |
Terry Zach |
9.95 |
3.70 |
90.05 |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Sela Burkholder |
9.84 |
5.10 |
144.36 |
Jaramillo Arriba |
Steve Sarner |
12.43 |
5.03 |
120.61 |
Los Molinos |
Fred Donelson |
24.23 |
3.60 |
NA |
Los Naranjos |
Craig Bennett |
8.34 |
2.22 |
77.93 |
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso) |
Michael Mullin |
24.12 |
3.36 |
200.00 |
Palmira Arriba |
Lloyd Cripe |
8.6 |
1.45 |
114.62 |
The November and December data indicate a transition into drier weather. I call November and December the transition months. Rainfall for the month of December was clearly lower than in November. As we enter January there is a lot of NE winds and dry skies.
The Dry Season is basically here. This is not to say we won't have some showers as the month progresses. Often Boquete, especially the northern part, has Bajareque from the Caribbean in January and February. The Flower Festival later this month can be a wet experience. Whether or not that will happen this year is yet to be known, but don't be surprised if you need an umbrella during the Festival.
The yearly rainfall totals are in and Lucero (previously Cielo Paraiso) is the winner with 200 inches of rain in 2013. Los Naranjos wins the lowest rainfall of the year with only 77.93 inches. We don't have the numbers for the year from Los Molinos because Fred Donelson put his station up in July 2013. Next year we will have his annual reading.
Thanks again to all of you that measured the rainfall and shared the data with us month by month. Some used automated stations but others checked their gauges manually every day of the year and diligently recorded the data. It takes some dedication to pull this off, but I think it is worth it. We now know more about the rainfall in various areas of the District. Thanks for your diligence.
I spent some time with the data for the year and generated the 3 charts below.
The first chart is the monthly rainfall totals for the Palmira Station in 2013. Note that January (month 1) only had a trace of rain and September was the rainiest. The second chart is the average monthly wind at the Palmira Station in 2013. Note that the least windy month was September and the windiest was December. If you compare the 2 charts you will note that they are the inverse of each other. In other words, when it is the windiest, we have the least rainfall and when the wind is least we have the most rainfall. This is the way of the ITCZ, Low Pressures and NE Trade Winds. You can read more about this here.
The 3rd chart plots the total rainfall for each year that the Palmira Station has been operating. A frequent question is whether or not this years total rainfall is less or more than usual? It is difficult to answer this question without many years of data and a trend analysis. This year's total of 114.62 inches seems low but note that there have been other years with less and other some with more.
Here are the basic rainfall statistics for this 7 year period: Mean = 159.09 inches; Standard deviation = 44.31 inches; Range = 115.93 inches (low = 106 inches and high = 222.68 inches). 2013's total rainfall is basically 1 standard deviation below the mean for the 7 years. This is not enough difference to say that this year is exceptionally low or it is statistically different. While it at times it seems to me that there is some decrease in annual moisture, the limited hard data is not certain. We will have to collect more data and see what eventually happens.
Check out the latest ENSO Cycle Report to see that we are still in a neutral condition and it is predicted that this will continue through the summer. You can get yourself educated as to what all of this means at this NOAA website. If you want to earn a graduate degree on the topic go here.
The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society - select South America from the Region menu) is not reporting whether our area will have above or below normal climatological precipitation for the months of January 2014 through March of 2014. The region just east of us is predicted to have 45 percent probability of above-normal precipitation.
Last month on December 7 an important 41 year anniversary took place. It was the anniversary of the most significant photo of my lifetime. On December 7, 1972 at 5:39am the Apollo 17 astronauts took the now famous Blue Marble photograph. Conditions were perfect for this shot and they had the camera ready. There it is, our earth floating in dark space. No strings attached. Round as the ancients had predicted. What a meditation. Wow! What a shot. You can read a bit more about it here.
41st Anniversary of Special Photo
As I write this, the Northeastern U.S. is expecting very cold weather. The Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers are playing today in Green Bay, Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in very cold temperatures. It is expected to be one the coldest days that a football playoff game has ever been played. At the moment Green Bay is reporting 5 degrees Fahrenheit, 59% Humidity and 6 mph winds. It is expected that it will get colder as the game progresses. I sure am glad that I can watch the game here in Paradise at 71.8 degrees Fahrenheit, 51% Humidity and 8.5 mph East winds. My feet are warm and my umbrella is collecting dust.
Lloyd Cripe